Raila Leads At 49%, Ruto At 41% As TIFA Releases Final Poll 5 Days To Elections

BY   JOAN WANJIKU,NAIROBI, TIFA research firm has released a new presidential poll that shows Azimio La Umoja Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga is still in the lead ahead of Kenya Kwanza’s William Ruto.

In the latest and final poll on the upcoming elections released on Wednesday, August 3, Odinga scored 49 per cent of the vote beating Ruto with 8 percentage points.

Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoya ranked third at 2 per cent while David Mwaure of Agano Party scored 0.2 per cent.

The firm has for the first time analysed the results without factoring the undecided voters and found that Odinga would score 53 per cent of the vote, while Ruto would follow at 45 per cent. Both Wajackoya and Mwaure retain their percentages with or without the undecided voters considerations.

In the popularity of political alliances, Azimio La Umoja One Kenya coalition party is still ahead with 46 percent popularity against Kenya Kwanza’s 36 per cent.

However, in terms of political party alignment, the survey shows that most Kenyans identify with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) led by William Ruto at 38 percent followed by the Odinga led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 32% and Jubilee at 5%.

Wiper Party ranked fourth at 4% followed by Roots Party, KANU, ANC, DAP-Kenya and Ford-Kenya  all at 1 percent.

“Still, a significant proportion chose not to self-identify with any party (15%), which seems to be a rather higher figure so close to the election, at least when compared with similar previous survey data,” noted the TIFA.

The survey was conducted between 31st July and 1st of August and interviewed 2,268 respondents via phone.

With only five days left to the August 9th election, today is expected to be the last day for the publication of electoral opinion polls in line with the law.

Section 7 (1) of the Publication of Electoral  Opinion Polls Act which stipulates: “A person shall not publish the results of any electoral opinion poll on the day of the election or during the period of five days immediately preceding the date of an election.”

Any person who contravenes the law is liable to a fine not exceeding one million shillings or to imprisonment for a period not exceeding one year, or both.

On Tuesday, August 2, three pollsters ranked Azimio La Umoja One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga ahead of his main challenger William Ruto with six days left before Kenyans go to the polls.

Infotrak put Odinga ahead with 49 percent against Ruto’s 42 percent while IPSOS also ranked Odinga ahead by six percent at 47 percent.

On the other hand, TIFA said their figures had put Odinga ahead of Ruto in Nairobi and Kajiado counties.

The pollsters classified undecided voters at between 4 and 6 percent.

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