The last opinion polls indicate Odinga and Uhuru are neck to neck

The last opinion polls indicate Odinga and Uhuru are neck to neck

BY EURIDICE NZIOKA,NAIROBI,1ST AUG 2017-The last two opinion polls from different research firms released  on Tuesday 1st AUG just a week to the elections indicate that  National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, and  Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta  are neck to neck .However  the infotrak poll  puts Odinga  a head of Uhuru with  49 per cent of  popularity while Jubilee Party’s President Uhuru Kenyatta would garner 48 per cent of the votes if elections were held today.

On the other hand Tunza Coalition presidential candidate Abduba Dida would get 0.3 per cent of the votes, while Third Way Alliance presidential candidate Ekuru Aukot would get 0.1 per cent of the votes.

Another 2 per cent of the sampled voters were undecided, the Infotrak poll shows.

Infotrak CEO, Angela Ambitho, While releasing the poll results at the Infotrak offices in  Nairobi, said the pollster used the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) register to guide their sampling.

“We only spoke to registered voters and those who clearly stated that they intend to vote,” said Angela Ambitho.


NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga -COURTESY
Jubilee presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta-FILE

The Infotrak poll, which sampled 5, 000 voters, shows Raila Odinga leading in the Coast, Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Nairobi regions, while President Uhuru Kenyatta would carry the day in the Rift Valley, Central and North Eastern regions.

Ms Ambitho, however, noted that Odinga had made a significant inroad into Rift Valley, a region perceived to be Deputy President William Ruto’s heartland.

On the other hand, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support in the Coast region increased significantly.

“It is clear that only Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta can win in the presidential race. The 2 per cent undecided voters will handle the tie. The 2 per cent can go either way and determine the outcome. Either Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta will clinch the presidency,” said Ms Ambitho.

Despite the poll showing none of the front runners would surpass the 50 per cent plus 1 vote needed to clinch the presidency in the first round, Ms Ambitho has ruled out the possibility of a run-off.

“What we have is a statistical dead heat, with only 1 per cent difference,” she said.

Ms Ambitho said the presidential poll released Tuesday, August 1 is the firm’s last ahead of the August 8 general election.

“We have been crunching the numbers till early this morning (Tuesday, August 1) because we had to beat the seven days before general election embargo we placed on ourselves as the Marketing Research Association,” she said.

According to the poll, Raila is leading in Coast with 63% against Uhuru’s 32%, Eastern 51% against Uhuru’s 47%, Western 79% against Uhuru’s 19%, Nyanza 86% against Uhuru’s 14%, Nairobi 56% against Uhuru’s 40%.

Uhuru is leading in North Eastern with 48% against Raila’s 46%, Central 92% against Raila’s 5%, Rift Valley 65% against Raila’s 32%.

In a previous Infotrak poll – released on July 23 –, Odinga came ahead of President Kenyatta, with a 47 per cent approval rating, compared to Uhuru Kenyatta’s 46 per cent. Undecided voters were polled at 6 per cent.

The second  poll released by research firm Ipsos Synovate  on the same day showed that  elections were held today, President Uhuru Kenyatta would garner 47 percent of the total votes cast, while opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, would get 44 percent.

The poll  which shows that NASA enjoys a following of 45% countrywide against Jubilee’s 41%.

Another 5% of the voters still remain undecided on whom to vote for in the August 8 polls while 3% refused to answer.

Further it shows that Raila leads in Nairobi, Coast, North Eastern, Nyanza, Western, Lower Eastern, and pastoralists’ Rift areas while
Uhuru leads in Central, Upper Eastern, and Central Rift.

Tom Wolf, the lead researcher at IPSOS,  while releasing the results said that the survey was conducted by the firm and sampled 4,308 respondents.

“This was a household based survey. We had a sample size of 4,308 respondents,” said Wolf.

He further noted that the poll focused on the registered voters.

“We insisted on confirming which polling stations the respondents were registered,” he added.

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